Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? by Graham Allison

Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

by Graham Allison

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History & Foreign Affairs

Allison's case is that when a rising power challenges a ruling one, it usually ends in war, and America and China are on that path. A Belfer Center study counts 16 such cases in 500 years, and 12 ended in war. Critics like Arthur Waldron dispute the case selection, so how much rides on which 16 you count?

Core ideas
  • The trap: Athens' rise and Sparta's fear made war inevitable, in Thucydides' telling, and Britain and Germany before 1914 is a key parallel.
  • Not destiny: Four cases avoided war, including the Cold War, and they yield twelve lessons for keeping the peace.
  • Winning without battle: China has passed the US in manufacturing, infrastructure and STEM investment, and prefers economic leverage to battle, as Sun Tzu advised.
Published2017
Pages364
ISBN9780544935273
ReadAug 2025

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